Friday, October 9, 2009

Blast from the past

Hey everyone. Remember April 24th? I couldn't, until I went here.

Of very mild interest, is the second comment on the post where I said Adam LaRoche's PECOTA forecast was .271/.354/.489, with 24 HR. I also thought he might defy that by a bit because of his flukey hot start. Well, have a look at the actual stats:

.277/.355/.488, 25 HRs.

How terrifying must that be, if you're Adam LaRoche, and your entire destiny as a mid-level power bat with an ever lowering ceiling was foretold so accurately every spring? I'd like to believe that he heard of this prophecy, and, trying to exceed it, regressed even further to the mean, just like King Oedipus did.

Some other PECOTA projections:

Freddy Sanchez PECOTA-- .291/ .332/ .422, 3 HR
Freddy Sanchez Actual-- .296/.334/.442, 6 HR

Nate McLouth PECOTA-- .269/.349/.475, 8 HR
Nate McLouth Actual-- .256/ .349/.470, 9 HR

Jack Wilson PECOTA-- .265/.302/.367, 2 HR
Jack Wilson Actual-- .267/.304/.387, 4 HR

Andy LaRoche PECOTA-- .239/.328/.366, 4 HR
Andy LaRoche Actual-- .258/.330/.401, 12 HR


All of these projections seem to be short in quantity. The only one I have that lists a full season is Adam LaRoche. It's like they figured all these guys would be traded, and they're only bothering to project what they'd do as Pirates. That makes it all the more impressive that PECOTA could estimate how much opportunity they'd get before being moved.

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